The same storm system that is wrecking havoc in parts of the South and Midwest – especially in Arkansas as I type this post – is expected to slowly move easterly through the week. This could bring the slight possibility of severe weather across the panhandle and the Big Bend.
From looking at long-range guidance, it seems to be more of a slight risk for severe weather as the greatest dynamics will be further north away from Florida. There could be some shear, but nothing like the environment was in Arkansas and nearby states today. Moisture should be decent as guidance is calling for precipitable water amounts of greater than an inch. If there is enough sunshine earlier in the day, this could also help with thunderstorm development/enhancement.
The greatest risks for Tuesday will be damaging winds and maybe some tornadoes. I will know more tomorrow (Monday) night after work as I look through guidance and discussions again.
Again, I am not expecting anything of the likes that folks in Arkansas are going through right now. My thoughts and prayers go to those who have suffered through tonight’s severe weather.
For now, those in the panhandle should keep tabs on the weather tomorrow and Tuesday. The chance of rain and thunderstorms may hang around beyond Tuesday.