Slight Risk of Severe Weather Remains Through Wednesday

The latest data and model runs hint at a much lower risk of severe weather tonight, but the possibility remains on Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has scaled back their severe weather prediction slightly based on the latest Day 1 Outlook product. They have the Tallahassee area at a 15 percent risk of damaging winds and hail tonight, compared to 30 percent in earlier products. For day 2 (Wednesday), it’ll be at 15 percent for all severe weather.

At least one limitation of a threat tonight is that temperatures have not rebounded much since the first round of rain came through this morning as they have stayed below 70 for much of the day. The lack of warming doesn’t do much help for sustaining/building storms. The winds have either been out of the west or east, but not the south. This has kept further warm air advection at bay.

Every time I have peaked at guidance today, it seems that the storms that could arrive in the Tallahassee area are being further delayed. Estimated arrival times have changed from late tonight/early AM to late morning. The timing of arrival is highly uncertain still and making a precise forecast difficult to perform.

The blocked pattern further north, which is explained and illustrated by a tweet from The Weather Channel meteorologist Stu Ostro, gives me the hint that this system is, well, not going anywhere in a quick fashion.

If thunderstorms do arrive late morning and if there is enough sunlight to get things heated up, it could be enough to sustain/enhance thunderstorms. But guidance is hinting that cloud cover is possible in the morning and could inhibit daytime heating.

Guidance hints that energy and dynamics might be sufficient in the morning for a slight chance of damaging winds, but can’t rule out an isolated tornado somewhere in the panhandle.

But there is another threat that isn’t getting much attention: The rain. I know, it’s probably not as dramatic as severe weather, but flooding can be an issue in some areas of the panhandle where Tallahassee has received a surplus of at least 10 inches so far this year. Flood warnings remain in effect for some area rivers. Flood watches remain in effect for Tallahassee and points west. More rainfall in the near future will exacerbate things.

It’s likely that any thunderstorm activity will arrive at or after dawn based on the latest trends. We could still see rain, but I doubt it will be the grand show as the severe threat tonight will be very low. Flooding will continue to be an issue as the rain isn’t expected to end until Friday.