Rain chances are expected to jump on Thursday as a late-season cold front is expected to approach the state. Aloft, a deep trough is expected to dig across the eastern U.S. late in the week. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop in the northern states and drag a front along with it.
Moisture is plentiful, just in case you have not been outside lately. In fact, dewpoints could hit close to 70 before the front passes. Precipitable water amounts could be approaching 2 inches.
This juicy air, along with lift from the cold front, will fire up rain chances starting sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. The Weather Prediction Center and the major long-range guidance models (GFS & ECMWF) are betting on at least an inch of rain for the Tallahassee area before this system exits the area before the weekend begins. But the ECMWF ensemble mean keeps the total rainfall at about eight-tenths of an inch. At the moment, I’ll call for about an inch of total rainfall. As for timing, the heart of the rain will come sometime Thursday as the front approaches.
Rain chances tomorrow (Tuesday) will remain low, but begin to increase Wednesday. A much drier pattern will move in across the Tallahassee area sometime Friday.
Elsewhere, a low is expected to move in from the Bahamas and increase rain chances across southern Florida before the front approaches that area. Before it’s all said and done, some areas of southeast Florida could see between 1-2 inches of rain before the front passes.