Update on Disturbance in the Bay of Campeche

For the last few days, a broad area of low pressure has been hanging around the Bay of Campeche off the coast of Mexico.

(Source: NOAA)
(Source: NOAA)

The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a 20 percent chance of further development within the next five days. The biggest factor that will limit development is the wind shear in the area. Too much shear will limit development of thunderstorms.

A mid-level ridge is currently sitting over Texas (see map below). This ridge will likely push the disturbance to the west into Mexico and keep it directly away from the U.S. The models seem to be agreeing with this assessment. Guidance has the ridge sitting in place for at least the rest of the week.

(Source: College of DuPage)
(Source: College of DuPage)

I’ll keep you posted if anything changes.