NHC: Invest 40 Percent Chance of Development

The National Hurricane Center has given the tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche a 40 percent chance of development over the next five days. This has increased since last night’s update.

The low, which is nearly stationary, has not become better organized. Instead, it remains very broad. The NHC reported that gale-force winds were observed (via satellite) to the northeast and east of the center of the low. The strongest convection is on the eastern and southern side of the disturbance (see below).

(Source: NOAA)
(Source: NOAA)

The shear isn’t expected to drop much through the weekend, so immediate development isn’t likely. Guidance has the mid-level ridge over Texas and vicinity moving out near the end of the weekend as a trough digs across the eastern-half of the U.S. If this hangs around for a while, it might be worth watching. But, with the ridge to the north, it may slowly move west. As of now, any impact to Florida appears to be fairly low.

"Spaghetti" plot of guidance models of possible path of the disturbance. (Source: SWFWMD)
“Spaghetti” plot of guidance models of possible path of the disturbance. (Source: SWFWMD)

I’ll still keep an eye on it.