NHC Giving Disturbance 60 Percent Chance of Development

The National Hurricane Center is watching a low off of Florida’s east coast. They are giving it a 60 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours, and a 80 percent chance during the next five days.

(Source: NHC/NOAA)
(Source: NHC/NOAA)

A surface low has been swirling offshore over the weekend, and has helped bring showers and thunderstorms to portions of the peninsula. Based on satellite imagery, most of the  convection is located in the southern half of the low as it seems to be drifting south.

(Source: NHC/NOAA)
(Source: NHC/NOAA)

Wind shear forecasts hint of favorable conditions for intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours. The water temps are above 80. The NHC has indicated that “surface pressures are falling.”

If the thunderstorm activity continues to fire up and wrap around the system, and the pressure continues to fall, there a good chance that this system could become the first tropical depression of the season by midweek.

So far, it will likely keep rain chances elevated across portions of the peninsula in the near future. Guidance models have waffled a tad over the weekend, but most are currently having it sit near or offshore of Florida’s east coast, then take off towards the north and east.  A building ridge well off to the east and a trough to the north might help pick this disturbance off to the north late in the week. We’ll see if things change.

Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this storm later today, if necessary. I’ll keep an eye on it.