Tropical Wave in the Mid Atlantic Looking Better Organized

The National Hurricane Center has been watching a tropical wave moving through the Atlantic nearly 900 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.

(Source: NOAA)
(Source: NOAA)

The wave has improved in circulation, organization, and thunderstorm development based on infrared satellite imagery. It’s almost looked like a tropical cyclone based on the last few frames, but I think we need to wait and see what happens with this tonight into tomorrow.

The NHC is giving this a 50 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours, and a 70 percent chance in the next five days. The shear forecast looks very low for at least the next 48 hours. One limiting factor could be the dry, Saharan air that’s ahead of the disturbance.

The GFDL and HWRF models hint at development in the next few days as moves west-northwest.  One forecasting pro tip: The weaker this storm remains, the chances of it going more west than northwest will be likely. I’ll be watching it.