The Storm Prediction Center has placed a portion of the southeastern U.S. – including a portion of the Florida panhandle and the Big Bend – under a slight risk category of severe weather for Tuesday. This includes Tallahassee and Panama City.
An upper-level trough is expected to dig in the Midwest on Tuesday (see below). There will be plenty of lift associated with this large-scale system. At the surface, a low is expected to track from the lower Midwest to the northeast into the Great Lakes states. This will push a cold front through the eastern states Monday and Tuesday.
Warmer, more moist air will be transported northward towards the Florida panhandle and Big Bend. This, along with some shear, could help bring organized thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday. The GFS and the Euro are nearly identical on timing of the arrival of the front. Thunderstorms could be in the afternoon (if the current timing holds), where thunderstorm activity would get help from any daytime heating. CAPE isn’t expected to be very high, but might be sufficient.
The greatest threat will likely be damaging winds, but a couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out.
We’ll find out more Monday when the latest data and model runs are released. For now, keep tabs on the weather.