It’s Gon’ Get Cold

Yea, I know it’s been a while since my last post on my blog. Big whoop – wanna fight about it? I kid. Life has been extremely busy, but I figured I’d take a break and do some weather writing on my page while my wife is at work.

People in most of the southeastern U.S. – especially here in Tallahassee – got to experience a cold bast the last two days. Temperatures didn’t get as cold Friday morning, but once the clouds left and the winds relaxed Friday night, the low got to 27F in Florida’s capital. The cold looks to be the norm for most of next week.

CURRENTLY

The front that brought us the arctic blast as moved out and brought sunny conditions. Winds have switch from Friday’s northerly direction to more westerly. This will help warm thing up a tad. Tonight’s (Saturday’s) low is going to be closer to 40F with highs Sunday near 60F.

Another “dry” cold front will push though early Sunday and push temps Monday night to the lower to mid 30s.

MID TO LATE WEEK

Things will start to transition Monday with the approach of another system from the west. A deep upper-level trough will deepen from a positively-titled trough on Tuesday and become more north-south by Wednesday. The upper-level dynamics will aid in the development with a surface low (see below) that is predicted to hug the gulf coast.

Run of the GFS model showing predicted surface pressure and precipitation Monday night. (Source: WeatherBell)
Run of the GFS model showing predicted surface pressure and precipitation Monday night. (Source: WeatherBell)

The two major guidance models (GFS and the Euro) are not exact on the amount of rainfall. The uplift and moisture are about the same, but the rain maxima seem to be a different places, but the Euro is going higher over Florida. I’ll call for between a half-inch and a inch of rain through Wednesday afternoon in the Tallahassee area.

The cold air will blast through the area once again starting Wednesday morning. Height anomalies will be pretty darn low across the eastern U.S., which will set the stage for a nice arctic blast. The statistical guidance of the GFS is only hinting at lows no lower than 30 through next weekend. But raw guidance – GFS and ECMWF – are going arctic on Tallahassee’s ass. The two models from different nationalities are going in the middle 20s for lows starting Thursday morning (see below).

Predicted low temps from the raw GFS guidance model valid Thursday morning. (Source: WeatherBell)
Predicted low temps from the raw GFS guidance model valid Thursday morning. (Source: WeatherBell)

 

These 20s predictions could be treated as…insane, but there might be some truth to it. Snow is expected to fall from Arkansas to North Carolina during the passage of this system. With cold, arctic air moving over fresh snow will not allow the air to modify much as it moves south; therefore, the temps could be slightly colder than expected. We’ll have to see how much snow they get, how far south the snow gets, and where the high pressure system is to get a real feel for what temps could be later in the week.

SUMMARY

Monday: Cold and Sunny during the day. Rain chances increase during the night.

Tuesday: Rain with warmer temps. The weather become tranquil sometime Tuesday night.

Wednesday: Clearing and getting cold.

Thursday: Cold and clear.

Friday: Cold and clear.

Don’t put away those warm coats yet, as you will freeze your bum off – unless you are from the Arctic.

Shameless plug: I write weather at least once a week on WCTV’s weather page. Check it out.