It’s only early May – less than a month from the official start of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season – and we are already talking about possible tropical or subtropical development. There is a possibility that we could see our first named storm just off the southeastern coast as early as today.
The two big, global guidance models have been hinting at development For at least a week. It would take the leftovers from a stalled frontal boundary over Cuba and the Bahamas and move it northward. Fast forward to today and some of the predictions have come to fruition.
As if this morning, there is a broad area of cloud cover and showers associated with this disturbance (see visible satellite image below).
There are higher cloud tops east-northeast of Jacksonville in the Atlantic, with a healthy batch of rain northeast of West Palm Beach.
Model guidance is mostly in agreement with development sometime later today into something more closed than open. The ECMWF (The Euro) is a bit delayed, as it has been, with development. Last night, the timing of any sort of landfall is also starting to come to consensus.
The GFS, shown above (courtesy of WeatherBell) for Saturday morning, has “landfall” in South Carolina. The disturbance is still under the influence of a trough digging through the southeastern U.S., along with some higher winds aloft. The wind shear is expected to relax by Thursday; therefore, further organization is possible.
As of yesterday (Tuesday), the hurricane hunters have planned to send an aircraft out to investigate the system. We should have a better idea of what is going on with the system later today.
I’ll keep you posted as much as possible via social media (@charles_roop on Twitter) – as much as my job allows me.